Seaport forecasts 5% fall in Macau October GGR on China weakness

Seaport Research forecasts a 5 percent year-on-year decline in Macau gross gaming revenue for October, according to an October 1 report by senior analyst Vitaly Umansky. The brokerage projects October GGR of MOP22.87bn ($2.84bn).

According to Umansky, the weaker appetite reflects both softer macroeconomic conditions in China and Beijing's tax enforcement on offshore trusts held by high-net-worth individuals with assets abroad. The rules issued on 24 July clarified how offshore trusts are taxed. Gains on assets moved into these structures, along with taxable income earned while they operate, face a 20 percent levy. Some past unpaid taxes must be settled as well. Reuters reported that certain wealthy investors were weighing asset sales or borrowing to cover their tax bills.

That projection came after Macau recorded September GGR of MOP18.06 billion ($2.23 billion). The figure was 1.2 percent lower than a year earlier and 17.5 percent below August. Seaport observed that the month-on-month fall exceeded the roughly 8 percent decline that September usually brings. The annual comparison was also easier because a typhoon had hit September 2025. For the third quarter, GGR was down 3.8 percent year-on-year.

The FIFA World Cup had been blamed for the soft patch in June and July. Umansky, however, said Seaport also took the view that ultra-high-end demand had weakened, which could carry the downturn into the months ahead. For October, the firm anticipates demand will stay soft, made worse by a tough comparison with the high gaming hold recorded in October last year.

Even so, Seaport projects fourth-quarter GGR will match last year's level. The firm's estimates point to growth of 2.3 percent for the whole of 2026 and 3 percent in 2027. Umansky added a caveat, saying: "Our models are under review."

By segment, Seaport's estimates show VIP GGR up by a low-single-digit percentage year-on-year, helped by what the firm believed was a high VIP hold rate. Mass GGR, by contrast, was down by a low-single-digit percentage. Visitor arrivals in September are estimated to have grown 3.5 percent year-on-year, yet mass GGR per visitor dropped 5 percent. The brokerage linked that dilution to more lower-spending and non-gaming visitors. Overnight base-mass business is still estimated at around 30 percent under pre-pandemic levels, and Seaport sees a recovery in these customers as a key factor for lasting growth.

Profitability also remains under strain, Umansky said. Player reinvestment and agent commissions stayed elevated, and he saw little chance they would ease soon. At the same time, operating costs kept climbing while revenue growth stayed weak.