Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev expects consolidation in prediction markets over the coming years, according to a media report. The report says he linked Robinhood’s new joint venture with Rothera to the company’s position in a market expected to face strong competition.
Consolidation could reshape competition among prediction market businesses, including Robinhood and its Rothera joint venture.
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Rothera, a prediction-market joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, recorded more than US$3bn in trading since its May 2026 launch, according to the report. Its average daily volume rose 86% in July from June to US$118m, while Robinhood capped fees at one cent per contract.
Robinhood said on 4 June that it would route selected FIFA World Cup event contracts through Rothera, its exchange and clearinghouse operated through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. The company said it was also routing selected Major League Baseball contracts through Rothera and planned to add more events over time; the move could affect contract volumes sent to Kalshi.
Prediction markets recorded average daily trading volume of $4.13bn in October, up 55% from September, according to figures attributed to Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Open interest rose 45% to $3.27bn, while sports contracts accounted for 78% of total volume. Polymarket's average daily volume reached $655m, up 50% month on month.
US sportsbook handle rose 43% month-on-month in September, outpacing growth in taker volume on CFTC-regulated prediction markets, according to a Stifel note. Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial estimated taker volume at about $17.7bn, up 27%, while notional volume across regulated prediction markets rose 64% to $77bn.
US sportsbook handle grew faster than taker volume on prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in September, according to a Stifel note. Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial estimated that monthly taker volume across the industry reached about $17.7bn, a rise of 27%, while sportsbook handle in reporting states rose 43% month-on-month.
Robinhood reported $156m in revenue from event contracts in the second quarter of 2026, more than ten times the figure for the same period in 2025. The company also recorded 13.6 billion event-contract volumes during the quarter and said its Rothera exchange and clearing house, authorised by the CFTC, had passed 3.5 billion contracts traded. The report said Robinhood had not indicated that prediction markets were available to European users.