Robinhood chief executive Vlad Tenev said Rothera could become a leader in financial prediction markets. He also said the joint venture could serve as an exchange destination for brands and futures commission merchants seeking to enter event contracts.
The comments signal ambitions for Rothera to attract brands and futures commission merchants to event contracts.
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Prediction-market platforms were trading contracts on control of the US House and Senate during the 3 November midterm elections, according to the report. It cited Kalshi and Polymarket prices at 10:32 a.m. ET and said no results had been reported by then. The report also described third-quarter figures from Robinhood, including $173 million in event-contract revenue and 16.4 billion contracts traded.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani forecast Robinhood prediction-market revenue of $1.7 billion in 2028 and Coinbase revenue of $2 billion from event contracts and derivatives products that year. He also estimated Robinhood’s event-contract revenue at $650 million for 2026 and Coinbase’s at $600 million for the current year; the latter estimate includes products that may extend beyond event contracts.
Speakers at day one of the NEXTPredict Summit New York debated who gains from prediction markets, with economists disagreeing over whether retail traders are structurally disadvantaged. DraftKings' Jason Robins said the company's predictions business is already the third-largest exchange despite operating in fewer than half of US states.
CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter reported growing interest in Polymarket and Kalshi as football and the US election cycle gather pace. CNBC linked the attention to football’s return and the approaching November election, and also mentioned Robinhood.
According to CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter, platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting more attention now that football season has begun and the U.S. election is approaching. The newsletter placed the topic in its Monday digest of stories that move markets, a list that also covered worries about AI regulation, climbing oil prices, inflation figures and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for that week.
Robinhood is expanding its sports prediction offering with Crypto.com. The report places the expansion among recent prediction market deals.