Regulus Partners estimated a 5% probability that Brazil’s provisional betting ban would become permanent. The consultancy also put the chance of an interruption lasting at least a week at 85%, and said the measure required congressional approval within 60 days, extendable for the same period.
Operators and suppliers can use the estimates to gauge the risk of a prolonged interruption to regulated betting activity.
The day’s most important stories, free. One email a day.
President Lula issued a provisional measure immediately banning online betting operations in Brazil. Licensed sites face blocking from 6 October, and Congress has 120 days to ratify or amend the measure. Betano is preparing legal action, while Allwyn and Entain have outlined potential effects on their forecasts.
On Friday, with the country's general election two days away, President Lula signed a provisional measure that halts online betting sites in Brazil with immediate effect. Licensed operators will be blocked from 6 October, and customers have until the preceding day to ask for their money back. Any funds still held after that deadline must be credited by the sites to registered accounts during the window of 9 to 14 October. Because the instrument is provisional, Congress must review it, ratifying or amending it inside 120 days.
Brazil’s 85 federal fixed-odds betting authorisations expired on 25 October under Provisional Measure 1,394, which set them to end after 30 days. The article says nearly 190 brands had already switched off their sites in early October; operators received no refund of the R$30 million paid for each five-year licence.
Brazil's 85 federal fixed-odds betting authorisations expired on 25 October, according to the source. Provisional Measure 1,394 of 25 September had set them to end after 30 days. The operators paid BRL30m for each five-year licence and the source states the payments were not refunded. Nearly 190 brands had already switched off their sites in the first days of October.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the 25 October presidential runoff with 51.75% of valid votes, with 99.75% counted by 9:12pm Brasília time. The result leaves in place a government that supports Provisional Measure 1,394, which bans betting; Congress must vote on the measure within 120 days of publication or it lapses.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential runoff, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported, taking 51.75% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.25% with 99.75% of votes counted as of 9:12pm Brasília time on 25 October. The result keeps in office a government that supports Provisional Measure 1,394, which bans betting.
Brazil’s Provisional Measure 1,394/2026 prohibits fixed-odds betting and online casino activity nationwide, with federal authorisations expiring on 25 October 2026, according to the report. The measure also bars new authorisations; operators’ next steps depend on court challenges and parliamentary consideration, while the status of expired licences if the ban changes remains unresolved.
Brazil's federal authorisations for fixed-odds betting and online casino operators expired on 25 October 2026, the day of the presidential runoff, under Provisional Measure 1,394/2026, which took effect on 25 September. The measure prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, covering both sports betting and online casino games, and bars the issuing of new authorisations. The provisions also apply to authorisations issued by the states and the Federal District.
In a TV Globo debate on 23 October, President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro each blamed the other for the rise of online casinos. Fact-checkers Lupa and Fato ou Fake rated both claims false, noting that online games were legalised by Law 14.790/2023, which Lula signed.
President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro each attributed the origin of online casinos to the other during the final second-round presidential debate on TV Globo on the night of Friday 23 October. The exchange took place in the third block of the debate. Fact-checking agencies Lupa and Fato ou Fake rated the statements false.