Brazil’s TSE confirms Lula’s presidential election victory

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential runoff, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported, taking 51.75% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.25% with 99.75% of votes counted as of 9:12pm Brasília time on 25 October. The result keeps in office a government that supports Provisional Measure 1,394, which bans betting.

Bolsonaro was ahead after the first round on 4 October, taking 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%. The provisional measure had been signed by Lula on 25 September. Betting sites shut down on 6 October, and the federal authorisations held by licensees ran out on the day of the runoff itself. Brazil's regulated market had only been licensed in January 2025, and the R$30m (€5.3m) paid per licence has not been returned under the measure.

The measure has been in force since Lula signed it, but it still needs to become law. Lawmakers have 120 days from publication to vote, otherwise it lapses. The first 60-day window closes on 23 November, with a single 60-day extension possible. By 21 October the joint committee due to scrutinise the text had still not been set up, and over 90 amendments had been put forward, with some bringing back sports betting and others narrowing the ban to online casino games.

Three actions against the measure are before the Supreme Court (STF), with Justice Luiz Fux as rapporteur. One of them was brought on 28 September by the industry associations ANJL and IBJR. Abert, the broadcasters' association, and football clubs such as Flamengo have joined the case as well. Now that the runoff has finished, Fux is expected to rule on whether to suspend the ban before the full court decides, Poder360 reported.

Fux asked for a response, and the Attorney General's Office (AGU) came out for maintaining the ban without changes, calling betting a "dragon" that had to be tamed. The re-elected administration is also likely to argue for the measure in Congress.