LCA Consultores estimates that Brazil’s provisional online gambling ban could put BRL73bn in tax contributions at risk over four years. The consultancy also says 15,500 direct and indirect jobs and potential claims of BRL2.55bn for remaining licence fees are at stake.
The proposed ban could affect operators’ licence-fee liabilities, employment and the tax treatment of regulated gambling in Brazil.
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Regulus Partners estimated a 5% probability that Brazil’s provisional betting ban would become permanent. The consultancy also put the chance of an interruption lasting at least a week at 85%, and said the measure required congressional approval within 60 days, extendable for the same period.
A poll found 62% support for Brazil's betting ban. The outlet also reported that Polymarket assigned Flávio Bolsonaro a 58% probability of winning the forthcoming presidential election.
According to a new Quaest survey, 62% of voters in the country back the provisional measure that bans betting online. That poll appeared only nine days ahead of the presidential vote. Provisional Measure 1,394 was signed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 September, and the first round of the election followed on 4 October.
It was reported that a ban on fixed-odds betting would leave the Brazilian state and society without R$48.4bn to R$50.3bn by December 2029, when five-year authorisations end. Its calculation combines the GGR contribution allocated to statutory beneficiaries with federal taxes paid by operators, and excludes several other revenue items, according to the report.
A prohibition of fixed-odds betting in Brazil would leave the state and society without between R$48.4bn and R$50.3bn by December 2029, when five-year authorisations end, according to an estimate by BNLData. The figure, equivalent to about R$15bn a year, covers two revenue streams interrupted by Provisional Measure 1,394/2026, published on 25 September, the report said.
Blask estimates Brazil’s ban on licensed online gambling could push approximately 21.6 million bettors towards offshore platforms. Its report uses consumer behaviour observed following India’s August 2025 prohibition on real-money online gaming.
H2 Gambling Capital estimates that Brazil’s ban on regulated online betting will shift about R$25bn in annualised spending to unlicensed operators. Its central forecast assumes the regulated market closes and stays closed, while its working view is that it may reopen in 2027; the estimates depend partly on payment-channel blocking and how long the ban withstands legal and political challenges.