Ranking dos Políticos report warns of effects from Brazil online betting ban
Regulation3 min read
A Ranking dos Políticos report assessed the effects of Brazil’s online betting ban under Provisional Measure 1.394/2026, issued more than a month earlier. It cites R$37,000m in gross revenue and R$8,800m in federal tax receipts for 2025, and says the central self-exclusion platform had received 1.2 million requests by September 2026. The report argues that the ban leaves users without protections available in the regulated market.
Ranking dos Políticos has published a report assessing the effects of Provisional Measure 1.394/2026, which banned online betting in Brazil, a little over a month after the measure. The report reviewed what happened in 11 countries that restricted online betting. The 28-page report was written by public policy specialist Daniel Galvêas and reviewed by operations director Luan Sperandio. It is descriptive and makes no recommendations. The study was released a day before the public hearing that Justice Luiz Fux is due to hold at the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
According to the figures cited, 25.2 million Brazilians bet in the regulated market in 2025, generating gross revenue of R$37,000m. Federal tax receipts totalled R$8,800m between January and November. With the ban, those tax revenues and licence payments no longer had a legal offer behind them.
The report highlights the loss of protection mechanisms as one of the effects. The central self-exclusion platform, launched in December 2025, received more than 217,000 requests in its first 40 days. The study puts the total at 1.2 million requests by September 2026. With the regulated market closed, the tool no longer has practical use, the report says. On foreign sites there are reportedly no deposit limits, no self-exclusion and no route for complaints about fraud or unpaid prizes.
A press monitoring exercise cited alongside the report identified 1,845 illegal betting links on WhatsApp and Telegram between 26 September and 6 October. The monitoring put the September average at 1,870 links. The monitoring body cautioned that these results alone cannot determine the effect of the ban.
On India, the report says the formal market practically disappeared after the national law of August 2025, and about one in three users moved to foreign platforms. VPN use among those users rose from 26 to 46 days per quarter. In Indonesia, 12.3 million people deposited money in online games in 2025, although all forms of gambling are prohibited. In Norway, which has a legal offer and has banned payment intermediation for unlicensed operators since 2010, about 88% of revenue stayed within the regulated market in 2023. The study identifies three factors behind the differences between countries: the state's real capacity to enforce, a legal offer that attracts players, and control of payment methods.
On advertising, the report says Spain's 2020 restrictions reduced new account registrations but had no significant effect on deposits. In Italy, where advertising has been banned since 2018, Serie A clubs lose between EUR80m and EUR100m a year in sponsorship, and the government is considering reviewing the ban. For Brazil, the document recalls the 1946 ban, which closed about 70 casinos and eliminated between 40,000 and 60,000 jobs.