Miraima, a Japanese prediction-markets startup, reportedly reached nearly one million monthly active users within seven months of launch. Its app uses virtual points that users can exchange for gift cards and other rewards, while legal experts have raised questions about the rewards’ economic value.
Operators and regulators face uncertainty over whether reward-based prediction markets fall within gambling rules.
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Ohio Sen. Bill DeMora filed legislation to bring sports prediction markets under state sports-gambling rules and prohibit election-related event contracts. He said a federal appeals court ruling could help advance the proposals, though the bills would need to be reintroduced in 2027.
Texas sports betting and casino legislation could be affected by the lieutenant governor election on 3 November, according to the report. Dan Patrick has said gambling expansion needs majority support from Senate Republicans; in 2023, he declined to advance a sports betting amendment passed by the House. Vikki Goodwin supports letting voters decide on casinos and online sports betting.
According to the report, the future of Texas sports betting and casino legislation could hinge on the lieutenant governor race held on November 3. Dan Patrick, the Republican lieutenant governor, is the favorite on prediction markets to win another term against Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. As of Monday, Kalshi placed Patrick's chance at 75% and Polymarket at 77%, although trading volume in that market was small.
Illinois officials appealed to the Seventh Circuit after a federal judge barred the state from enforcing its event-contract licensing and tax law. Judge Martha Pacold’s 30 October order covers licensing, fees, taxes and enforcement measures concerning swaps, including sports event contracts offered by CFTC-registered companies.
Illinois officials took the matter to the Seventh Circuit after a federal judge stopped the state from applying its event-contract licensing and tax law, the report said. The ruling came from Judge Martha Pacold in an order dated Friday, Oct. 30, according to the report. Pacold's order blocks enforcement of licensing requirements, associated fees, taxes and related criminal provisions, the report said.
US senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis asked Kalshi and Polymarket for details of safeguards against insider trading and manipulation on election-related prediction markets. Their bipartisan letter also sought information about previous enforcement actions and suspected violations of Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules. The senators cited concerns about candidate trading and alleged manipulation, including cases involving Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brazil's National Monetary Council (CMN) barred contracts tied to election results and other events unrelated to economic and financial indicators from May 2026, the report said. The measure also led to Polymarket and Kalshi being blocked in Brazil. Specialists warned that users may mistake market probabilities for confirmed election results.
Brazil's National Monetary Council (CMN) barred contracts tied to election results and other events unrelated to economic and financial indicators from May 2026, according to a report. The measure also led to Polymarket and Kalshi being blocked in Brazil, the report said. Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to trade contracts whose value depends on election results, according to the report.