Kenya’s GRA plans prediction-market licence category

Peter Karimi, director general of Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA), has said the regulator intends to set up a dedicated licence class for prediction markets. The GRA has begun accepting applications for the 2026–2027 licensing cycle, and several firms have already asked the authority about the planned category. The regulator has not yet made public when the category would take effect or what applicants would need to provide.

Karimi said the GRA treats prediction markets as gambling because they concern future outcomes. "The interpretation of the GRA is that gambling involves primarily games of chance and prediction by definition is about outcomes that are in the future, and therefore no skill is required," he said. The Gambling Control Act of 2025 lists licences for online bookmakers, online lotteries and online casinos, and allows other categories to be specified through regulations, a route the GRA may use to create a prediction-market category. The authority has not released specific licence criteria for such platforms.

Existing online gambling rules cover control systems and methods for payments, age verification, advertising and regulatory access to transaction data. Karimi said the GRA is also examining cryptocurrency payments and cross-border access as particular concerns, noting that some services are available only in the US while others accept cryptocurrencies for withdrawals and onboarding.

The proposed category comes as Kenyan users are already taking part in 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit without licences, Business Daily reported on 18 October. The GRA's position was given in an interview with Karimi that the publication ran the same day.