Kalshi, Polymarket and allies spend at least $3m amid US jurisdiction dispute

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets spent at least $3m on lobbying and campaign contributions at federal and state level in 2026, according to figures reported by OpenSecrets on 30 September. The spending comes as officials contest which authority regulates the platforms, with lawsuits and a federal-versus-state legal dispute still unresolved.

Platforms in this sector describe their event contracts as swaps, a category of financial transaction that falls under federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That position is rejected by many states, which contend that venues listing contracts tied to sports and other events function much like sportsbooks or casinos and therefore belong within state gambling law. The stakes are commercial: a federal framework would apply nationwide, whereas state control could mean varying licence requirements, limits or outright prohibitions from one jurisdiction to the next.

Litigation brought by the CFTC against states aims to stop them applying gambling statutes to prediction-market operators. On the other side, state attorneys general maintain that federal supervision ought not to override state gambling regulation, and 44 of them put their names to a July letter to the commission that characterised prediction markets as a novel kind of casino. Federal courts are now weighing the matter; decisions so far have not been uniform, and the issue appears headed for the Supreme Court.

Money from Kalshi has gone to groups aligned with both major parties. Its first-half 2026 giving included $147,500 for the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 for the Democratic Attorneys General Association, plus $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association in the same six months. Beyond those bodies, the company backed a super PAC for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate bid and the campaigns of Vermont Attorney General Charity Clark, Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield and Florida Attorney General James Utheimer.

According to Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever, the company backs candidates on both sides of the political divide. OpenSecrets reported that Clark and Rayfield each told local outlets the contributions had no influence on them.

By September, the company had registered at least one lobbyist in 41 states, and almost every one of those registrations dated from April onward. Its California lobbying outlay for the first half of 2026 came to $62,000, covering three assembly bills as well as contacts with the governor's office and the attorney general's office regarding prediction markets.

Filings for New York show Kalshi raising its retainer to Brown & Weinraub Advisors from $10,000 a month to $25,000, and agreeing to a $25,000 monthly fee for the Mirram Group through a contract that ends in July 2027. The state also lists in-house lobbyist Blake Bee for the company, and on that basis the New York campaign is projected to cost more than $400,000 by July 2027.

Through 30 June 2026, Kalshi's federal lobbying bill came to almost $1 million. A Washington, D.C., office opened in January under John Bivona, and six outside lobbying firms were brought on. Of those, Miller Strategies was paid $240,000 in the first half of the year and Lincoln Policy Group $120,000.

Among the measures Kalshi reported lobbying on were the Prediction Market Act, the Protect College Sports Act and the National Defense Authorization Act, alongside matters concerning the CFTC, the Executive Office of the President, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the House and Senate. The defence bill contains provisions that would limit some prediction-market transactions, keep Department of Defense personnel off the platforms and ban wagers on military operations.

Filings with the Federal Election Commission indicate that Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara together donated roughly $1 million to Democratic and Republican recipients over the cycle. Polymarket's federal lobbying in 2026 amounted to $180,000, and as of OpenSecrets' reporting it had no state lobbyists on record. The coalition, whose members include Kalshi as well as Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Underdog, has likewise hired federal lobbyists and paid for lobbying in California.

Allegations touching on insider trading, wagers on military operations and deceptive marketing have intensified the argument. Connecticut brought a suit contesting Kalshi's sports markets. What remains unresolved right away is whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling rules and, should the states win, how legislators will refit statutes designed for sports betting, poker and casino games to cover contracts on a far broader set of events.