Kalshi and Donald Trump Jr. mutually ended his advisory role after 1789 Capital, his investment firm, led Polymarket’s $1bn funding round. Trump Jr. remains an adviser to Polymarket; Kalshi said political considerations were not discussed, while two sources said concerns had been raised internally.
The split changes advisory ties between two competing US prediction-market companies after a major Polymarket financing.
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Kalshi and Polymarket are increasing US lobbying as states contest whether sports-event contracts fall under gambling laws, a report by advocacy group Demand Progress says. The group says Kalshi spent $1.8m lobbying in the first half of 2026, nearly three times its reported total for 2025, and describes political hires at both companies. Federal appeals courts have reached conflicting conclusions on state authority, leaving the issue unresolved.
Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly increasing lobbying and recruiting political figures as they contest US states’ attempts to regulate sports-event contracts as gambling. A ruling allowing state laws to apply could require operators to obtain licences, follow local consumer protection rules or leave some jurisdictions.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that most US adults oppose prediction-market bets on elections and government decisions. The online survey of 4,506 adults, conducted from 30 September to 5 October, found 63% opposed bets on executive announcements and decisions; 69% of Democratic voters and 61% of Republican voters opposed election bets.
US Senator John Curtis asked the Senate Judiciary Committee to examine whether presidential family connections enabled personal financial gain or privileged access. His letter of 21 September specifically cited Donald Trump Jr.'s links with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Polymarket is raising $1bn at a reported $21bn valuation. The report identified 1789 Capital as the round’s lead investor.
US lawmakers from both parties questioned the head of a federal regulator about prediction markets at a hearing, as state and federal scrutiny grew. Polymarket halted a market on the timing of a US airman’s rescue after Rep. Seth Moulton objected, saying it did not meet the platform’s integrity standards. The White House also warned staff against trading on such markets with private information.