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Kalshi CEO argues prediction markets rely on skill at Washington event

Regulation

Kalshi co-founder and chief executive Tarek Mansour argued at a Washington event that prediction markets depend on skill rather than traditional betting. He said 25% to 33% of users finish a year in profit, while US public-health experts and gambling businesses dispute the model’s character and regulatory treatment.

Disagreement over whether prediction markets are skill-based or traditional betting could shape regulatory treatment of Kalshi’s contracts.

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Regulation

Two prediction-market operators sue Missouri over sports event contract rules

North American Derivatives Exchange, which operates Crypto.com's OG prediction market, and Ludlow Exchange, Novig's operator, filed separate lawsuits on 16 October challenging Missouri's 21-year age minimum and 10% tax on sports event contracts. Both argue that federal commodities law gives the CFTC authority over their contracts, pre-empting state gambling rules, after a 30-day compliance period following cease-and-desist notices expired. Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway's office maintains that labelling a sports bet an event contract does not remove it from state law.

North American Derivatives Exchange, which operates Crypto.com's OG prediction-market platform, and Ludlow Exchange, the operator behind Novig, filed separate lawsuits on 16 October challenging Missouri's sports event contract rules. The filings followed the expiry of a 30-day compliance period set out in cease-and-desist notices. Both companies argue that federal commodities law gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over their contracts, putting them outside Missouri's gambling requirements.

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