Jefferies analyst James Wheatcroft estimated that US online sports betting gross gaming revenue rose 25% in Q2 2024, or 41% including new-state launches. He put same-store handle growth at 29% and growth including new states at 42%.
The estimates give operators and investors a comparison of betting revenue and handle growth across the quarter.
The day’s most important stories, free. One email a day.
US iGaming revenue grew 12% year on year in Q3 2026, according to a Citizens Equity Research report cited in the report, down from 16% in Q2 and 19% in Q1. The report said sports betting handle rose 7% in Q3 despite one fewer week of NFL play, while same-store September handle increased 1% year on year.
Jefferies analyst David Katz said the US Supreme Court could hear prediction market disputes as soon as 2027, with the cases’ timing and selection uncertain. His report outlines four scenarios involving Kalshi and state challenges, and rates possible outcomes against the company from medium to very high probability.
Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley said US prediction markets could expand into sports betting and warrant monitoring by online operators and investors. He identified a forthcoming CFTC roundtable and an expected ruling on Crypto.com’s sports contracts in late March or early April as potential adoption catalysts. Polymarket offers more than 400 sports markets, while Kalshi offers more than 40, according to the report.
Jefferies analyst David Katz estimated that Illinois’ higher sports betting taxes would reduce DraftKings’ cash flow by $100 million over the next 18 months. He forecast a $10.2 million cash-flow contribution from Jackpocket in 2024 and $12.4 million in 2025, following the acquisition’s second-quarter close. Katz maintained a Buy rating and a $54 price target.
Jefferies analyst David Katz said US casino foot traffic was 7.5% higher in the first half of 2024 than in the same period of 2023, but remained 6% below 2019. He identified Ohio and Pennsylvania as above-average markets, with traffic up 12.3% and 13%, respectively, and described regional trends as uneven.