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H2 projects up to BRL30bn shifting to Brazil's illegal betting market

Regulation

H2 Gambling Capital estimated that BRL20bn to BRL30bn could move from Brazil's regulated market to unlicensed operators after a federal measure signed on 25 September prohibited fixed-odds betting operations, offers, intermediation and advertising. H2 said BRL25bn of betting volume could continue outside the regulated system, while BRL15bn could leave the market in the short term; it considered a 2027 reopening more likely than permanent closure.

A possible shift to unlicensed operators creates uncertainty for Brazil’s regulated market and its potential reopening.

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Regulation

Brazilian industry representatives warn betting ban could expand illegal market

Industry representatives warned at a Supreme Federal Court hearing in Brazil that the betting ban could shift activity to unlicensed operators. The Ministry of Justice said it had requested the removal of 36,905 websites between 25 September and 29 October; representatives also said betting volumes fell 32% in the latest three-month data compared with a year earlier.

A debate has intensified in Brazil over whether the betting ban protects consumers or steers gambling toward unregulated operators. The matter featured at a Supreme Federal Court (STF) public hearing on Tuesday. At that hearing, 34 entities discussed Provisional Measure 1.394, the measure that banned betting in Brazil.

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