Gibraltar authorises two prediction-market operators

Gibraltar has authorised a second prediction-market operator after licensing Predict Street in the spring, gambling commissioner Andrew Lyman said. The territory introduced dedicated rules in July and is handling a limited number of further applications, he said.

Lyman said the regime includes protections for markets and consumers and measures against money laundering. He said a Gibraltar base does not itself give operators access to other markets, where they must enter lawfully through local licences or commercial partnerships.

In June, nine regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland jointly warned against unlicensed platforms during the World Cup. Spain had blocked Polymarket and Kalshi in May. DGOJ head Mikel Arana said last week that unlicensed operators cannot legally serve people in Spain and their sites would be blocked. Germany's GGL included prediction markets on the agenda for a roundtable of European regulators in Halle on 4 November.

Some prediction-market contracts could fall under a ban on selling binary options to ordinary EU investors, the bloc’s markets watchdog ESMA has warned. Lyman disputes the comparison, saying it overlooks structural differences. He accepts that a single framework could eventually emerge, but doubts Brussels will act soon.

Prediction markets harm Italian concessionaires, LOGiCO vice-president Francesca Broggi said at SiGMA World in Rome last week. She also questioned the fairness of a system in which Italian operators purchase licences internationally and face increasing taxes, while Polymarket does not have to do so. Fiorentina D’Amore of Blockchain.com urged a shared EU framework based on crypto, financial and gambling law. Alessandro Brigato of Blockchain Italia argued that prediction markets could offer an opportunity to concessionaires that adopt them.

Lyman is nearing the end of his contract, and his successor has not been named.