New Mexico Representative Gabe Vasquez wants to amend the Farm Bill to bar prediction-market operators from offering sports event contracts. The House Agriculture Committee did not vote on the amendment, but Vasquez said its chairman committed to discussing it later; tribal gaming groups support the proposal.
The proposal could affect prediction-market operators offering sports contracts in states that prohibit sports betting.
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The CFTC proposed rule changes on 9 October to classify sports, political, cultural and weather event contracts as swaps under US federal law. The proposal would explicitly include these contracts in the agency’s rules.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed amending its rules so that event contracts based on sports, politics, culture and weather are explicitly included in the definition of a swap under federal law. The proposal was announced on 9 October, according to the regulator, and a public consultation has been opened before the agency decides whether to adopt the change.
The US Supreme Court has yet to decide whether to review prediction market litigation involving Kalshi. Legal observers warned that declining review could leave conflicting appeals court decisions unresolved and operators facing separate state disputes over the regulatory status of sports event contracts.
A report dated 12 October 2026 notes that the justices have so far given no indication of whether they will take up the Kalshi prediction market disputes. In the view of legal observers quoted in that report, refusing the petitions would probably push operators into a state-by-state contest over sports event contracts that varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States has filed an amicus brief urging the US Supreme Court to consider the dispute over sports event contracts, reportedly backing New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport’s petition. The lawmakers argue that states should retain authority over gaming-related products and warn that a ruling for Kalshi could prompt casinos and pari-mutuel businesses to restructure.
Reportedly, Two federal appeals courts disagree on whether sports event contracts constitute bets. Three petitions are before the Supreme Court as Kalshi continues to record trading highs.
The Ninth Circuit ruled for the Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, reversing a lower court and partially granting their request for a preliminary injunction. The three-judge panel found the tribes were likely to succeed in arguing that Kalshi’s sports-event contracts on tribal lands violated the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and tribal gaming ordinances.