Five incoming state attorneys general could shape US prediction-market disputes
Regulation2 min read
Five Democrats won state attorney general races in Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas and Ohio, where prediction-market operators offer sports event contracts. Kalshi says federal commodities law gives the CFTC exclusive authority, while more than three dozen state attorneys general argue the contracts fall under state gambling laws; incoming officials could pursue or defend legal action.
Five Democrats reportedly won attorney general races previously held by Republicans in Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas and Ohio, where their states face disputes over prediction markets offering sports event contracts.
Federal commodities law gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sole authority over Kalshi’s sports event contracts, the company argues. More than three dozen state attorneys general argue that the contracts are wagers subject to state gambling laws. Three of the incoming attorneys general will succeed Republicans who signed a brief supporting New Jersey’s request for Supreme Court review of its Kalshi dispute.
Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson beat Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton for the open seat after Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton decided to seek a U.S. Senate seat. Sports betting is prohibited in Texas, which has also resisted attempts to permit destination casinos. In 2025, Johnson proposed a constitutional amendment that would have put casino resorts and sports wagering before Texas voters. Paxton stayed out of the multistate brief backing New Jersey and generally steered clear of state-led cases against prediction markets.
Democratic state Rep. Tanya Miller, previously a prosecutor and civil rights attorney, beat Republican state Sen. Brian Strickland, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee. In their campaign debate, the candidates discussed protecting Georgia consumers from predatory sports betting ads if wagering becomes legal, but provided no specific safeguards. Outgoing AG Chris Carr did not sign the Supreme Court brief. Separate private litigation against Kalshi is already in progress in Georgia, and Miller will have to decide whether the state should bring government legal action.
Labour lawyer and former state representative Nate Willems, a Democrat, unseated Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird, a signatory to the Supreme Court brief. In federal court, Kalshi sued Bird and state gaming officials in an effort to stop Iowa from enforcing gambling laws against the exchange. After a federal judge rejected its preliminary injunction request, Kalshi appealed. Willems’s office inherits the defence of Iowa’s authority to apply gambling laws to sports event contracts; whether he will keep supporting the push for Supreme Court review remains uncertain.