Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood and Underdog have formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets, a trade group advocating federal oversight of prediction markets. The coalition launched with those five members as sports event contracts face challenges from state regulators and litigation over state and federal authority.
The group will advocate for federal oversight as state regulators challenge sports event contracts.
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A coalition including Kalshi, Crypto.com and Polymarket has sued Kentucky over a 14.25% tax on prediction market operators’ transaction fees, according to the lawsuit. The plaintiffs argue that the levy is discriminatory and conflicts with federal law; Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman said his office would defend the law. Kalshi said the tax could drive users towards unregulated platforms.
A Coalition for Prediction Markets study estimates that US users traded between $11bn and $34bn on unlicensed offshore prediction markets from April 2025 to May 2026. The association says nearly two-thirds of that volume involved Polymarket and reports that licensed operators grew 4.8 times faster than unlicensed counterparts between 2024 and 2025.
The Coalition for Prediction Markets has asked the CFTC to define “gaming” narrowly in its rules, arguing that the term should cover casino-style games rather than sports-related event contracts. The CFTC rule restricts contracts linked to gaming and specified other activities; state regulators maintain that sports contracts fall under state betting laws, while the commission has yet to decide whether to adjust its rules.
The Gambling Is Not Investing coalition, launched by Rep. Mick Mulvaney, aims to persuade legislators that prediction markets offer illegal gambling, according to the report. The coalition argues that these products bypass gambling rules and consumer protections; prediction markets dispute that characterisation and cite Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight. The CFTC is considering how to regulate the platforms, while its chair has threatened court action against challengers to its authority.
Gambling is Not Investing (GINI) named Mick Mulvaney its executive director, according to a report published on 3 March 2026. The coalition opposes sports event contracts offered by prediction markets and argues that they should face the same standards as licensed sportsbooks. It cited Kalshi among the platforms it believes should be subject to those standards.