A Federal Reserve study published last month described Kalshi market data as a continuously updated benchmark for researchers and policymakers. The study examined Kalshi data alone, while the report said the CFTC oversees prediction markets in the US.
The study’s assessment may inform policymakers’ use of prediction-market data in economic analysis.
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US District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley granted a preliminary injunction in Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi in California on Wednesday. The order bars Kalshi from offering sports contracts on the plaintiff tribes’ lands and requires the tribes to provide boundary maps by 13 November; Kalshi must report its compliance steps within 21 days.
A San Francisco federal judge has blocked Kalshi from listing sports event contracts on land belonging to the California tribes that are suing it. Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley, who sits in the Northern District of California, granted the tribes a preliminary injunction on Wednesday in the case Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi.
The Ninth Circuit on 3 November declined to rehear Kalshi’s challenge to Nevada’s treatment of its sports markets. Separately, the Second Circuit denied injunction requests by Kalshi and Coinbase, allowing authorities in New York and Connecticut to continue enforcement while appeals proceed; Kalshi has 90 days to seek Supreme Court review of the Nevada ruling.
The Ninth Circuit declined Kalshi's requests for a panel rehearing and a rehearing en banc concerning its Nevada ruling. Separately, the Second Circuit denied injunctions sought by Kalshi and Coinbase that would have stopped states enforcing gambling laws against their sports event contracts while the appeals continue.
The US mid-term election brought Democrats control of the House and Senate, while state regulators and prediction-market operators continue to dispute the legality of sports event contracts. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport asked the Supreme Court in September to review whether federal law prevents states from regulating those contracts; a law professor quoted in the report said he expects the court to hear the challenge.
New Jersey Atty. Gen. Jennifer Davenport petitioned the Supreme Court in September to consider whether states may regulate sports offerings on prediction markets. Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in the mid-term election.
Kalshi recorded more than $1.1 billion in election trading during the 10 days around the US midterms, while parlays generated $25.3 billion over the same period, according to analysis of prediction-market data. Election trading accounted for 3% of platform volume; volume measures contracts exchanged, not revenue retained by the platform.
Kalshi processed more than $1.1 billion on elections during the 10 days surrounding the midterms, only 3% of the platform's volume. Over the same period, Kalshi processed $25.3 billion in parlays and also $6.1 billion in non-parlay sports contracts.
The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi’s requests for panel rehearing and rehearing en banc in its Nevada case, leaving the ruling dissolving the preliminary injunction against Nevada gaming regulators in place. Kalshi has 90 days to petition the US Supreme Court; the sports-event contract ban remains in effect in Nevada, and the company says the ruling exposes it to civil and criminal liability.
On Wednesday, the Ninth Circuit turned down Kalshi's request to have the case reconsidered by the panel or by the full court. No judge asked for a full-court vote. The panel was unanimous in declining to rehear the matter, per the decision.