Representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel and DraftKings submitted recommendations to the CFTC on a possible framework for prediction markets, according to the report published on 1 May 2026. The report does not specify the recommendations or the consultation’s next steps.
The recommendations may inform the CFTC’s approach to a regulatory framework for prediction markets.
Quarter ended 30 September 2026
The day’s most important stories, free. One email a day.
ESMA’s trends, risks and vulnerabilities report, published on 10 September, says users in the EU can access prediction-market services through VPNs despite geographic restrictions. The report says these contracts may fall under financial, cryptoasset or national gambling rules, depending on their terms, and that major platforms generally lack the required EU authorisation.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has said that virtual private networks allow users to circumvent the geographic restrictions of prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a chapter of its latest trends, risks and vulnerabilities report. The report was published on 10 September. ESMA said that offering these event contracts in the EU generally requires an EU authorisation that the largest prediction-market platforms do not currently hold.
The Pentagon issued a directive barring military personnel from trading on prediction markets using nonpublic information. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that such trades could compromise national security and expose service members to disciplinary action or prosecution. Lawmakers also sent letters to BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, Fanatics, Kalshi and Polymarket expanding an inquiry into VIP programmes.
Donald Trump expressed support for US leadership in prediction markets during White House remarks on 19 August. State gambling regulators argue that sports contracts constitute betting requiring state licences, while platforms operate under CFTC oversight. The report cited Kennedy Forum estimates that sports account for 75%–90% of Kalshi’s trading volume and roughly half of Polymarket’s activity.
DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and other gambling companies have pooled resources to support candidates in November's US midterm elections. The companies have spent at least $72m on the elections so far, according to a Reuters report cited by the outlet. The funds support Win for America, a super PAC, and two connected committees targeting candidates of both parties.
PlayUSA reported, citing The Hill, that the SAFE Bet Act and a proposal banning sports prediction contracts had stalled in Congress. Lawmakers did not expect major legislation before the midterm elections.