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Brazil Treasury applies betting rules to prediction markets

Regulation

Brazil’s Ministry of Treasury says prediction markets offering contracts on future events with set prizes fall under betting regulation. A National Monetary Council resolution dated 24 April 2026 bars offering or trading derivatives tied to entertainment, political or sports events, while the ministry said it would use measures including website and app blocking against illegal operations.

Prediction-market operators may face the same enforcement measures as illegal betting platforms in Brazil.

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Brazilian finance minister removes betting revenue estimate from 2027 budget proposal

Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on 5 November that the federal revenue estimate from betting would be removed from the 2027 budget proposal, with losses expected to be offset elsewhere in the economy. He estimated that about R$60bn a year would shift from betting to sectors such as retail and wholesale; the report disputes that figure, citing official data of R$36.9bn in operator gross gaming revenue in 2025 and R$20.07bn in the first half of 2026.

Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan said in an interview on Thursday that the estimate of federal revenue from betting houses would be removed from the 2027 annual budget bill, known as the Ploa. According to the minister, the loss will be offset in other areas of the economy.

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