Brazilian agencies report no impact studies on betting ban
Regulation3 min read
Brazil’s Planning Ministry, Federal Revenue study centre and Civil Office reportedly disclosed that they had no impact study or estimate on the betting prohibition. The responses covered assessments of the policy and, in the Revenue centre’s case, documents produced after the measure was published.
Brazil's Planning Ministry, the Federal Revenue's tax and customs studies centre (CETAD) and the Civil Office of the Presidency did not present any study, technical note or impact estimate of the betting prohibition, according to the report. Their responses came to freedom-of-information requests that were filed on 20 September.
The requests were addressed to the Ministry of Planning and Budget, to CETAD and to the Civil Office. The report said the Finance Ministry had earlier admitted, the day before MP 1.394/2026, that no study existed on the impacts of the betting ban. The report added that the Sports Ministry was not consulted.
The Planning Ministry replied on 13 October with the decision "Informação Inexistente", meaning the information does not exist. Its evaluation-cycle management unit said that the council for monitoring and evaluating public policies had carried out no assessments on changes to the policy or on betting in general. The request covered the period from 1 January 2025 to the date of the reply. The ministry concluded that it holds no data or documents on assessing possible changes to federal fixed-odds betting policy.
CETAD replied in a note signed on 29 September, four days after the publication of the MP. The Revenue studies centre said two earlier notes, numbered 009/2026 and 023/2026, were the only documents it had produced on the subject to date. The report said that, with the ban already in force, the Revenue's technical area had not produced any new estimate of the revenue the Union would forgo.
The Civil Office extended the deadline on 29 September and replied on 23 October. Its decision was "Acesso Parcialmente Concedido", meaning partial access was granted. The reply listed six meetings of its Secretariat for Articulation and Monitoring published on e-Agendas. None of those held before the MP dealt with a prohibition, the report said. The reply also cited a decree of 28 September that created an inter-institutional committee on oversight of illegal betting operation and advertising. The request had asked expressly whether the Civil Office had requested, received or analysed studies, ex ante assessments or impact estimates from other bodies, and those questions went without a direct answer, according to the report.
The only document whose existence the Civil Office acknowledged is a legal opinion from its Special Secretariat for Legal Affairs. That opinion was placed under secrecy on the basis of lawyer-client professional confidentiality and the civil servants' statute. The legal secretariat extended the same restriction to all other documents in the process, on the grounds that they were used to prepare the opinion.
The report said Lula decided on the prohibition on 23 September at the Alvorada Palace with ministers Dario Durigan (Finance), Moretti (Planning) and Miriam Belchior (Civil Office), citing a press account. The MP was published on 25 September. MP 1.394 locks the Chamber of Deputies' agenda on 9 November and lapses on 4 March 2027 if it is not voted.