Brazil minister confirms R$5.3bn 2027 betting revenue loss

Brazil's planning minister, Bruno Moretti, confirmed in an interview with Valor that a ban on betting would reduce revenue by R$5.3bn in 2027, and said the government is considering reducing spending tied to betting revenue. The interview was published on Monday 19 October. Moretti said the government may cut transfers to the legal beneficiaries of Law 14.790/2023, which include sport, tourism, public security, health and education.

Reportedly, the R$5.3bn figure matches the contribution on gross gaming revenue that Law 14.790/2023 distributes among legal beneficiaries, including the ministries of sport and tourism, the national public security fund, Funapol, health, education and social security. It was reported that in the 12 months to June 2026 beneficiaries received an average of R$413.5m per month, about R$5bn a year at a 13% rate, and that with the 14% rate already approved for 2027 by Complementary Law 224/2025 the amount reaches about R$5.3bn. In 2025 that share was R$4.5bn, 31% of what the sector returned to the public authorities.

It was reported that official data obtained through the Access to Information Law show the sector returned R$14.45bn to government and society in 2025, the first year of the regulated market, and that federal revenue from the sector reached R$7.284bn in the first half of 2026. At the 2026 pace, the ban would remove about R$14.6bn a year from public coffers. It was reported that a large financial institution consulted by Valor estimates a loss of R$11.2bn from betting in 2027.

Moretti told Valor that the government's estimate is lower than the market's because it assumes some reduction in betting volume due to restrictive measures already being adopted. It was reported that official data do not show that decline: gross gaming revenue was R$20.07bn in the first half of 2026, up 15.3% year on year, beneficiary revenue held at the level of the previous half, and June 2026 set a record at R$513m.

It was reported that the federal government collected R$9.95bn in federal taxes from the regulated sector in 2025, including corporate income tax, social contribution on net profit, PIS/Cofins and social security contributions, more than double the amount that went to legal beneficiaries. BNLData also listed items outside the official calculation: regulatory fees, which brought R$105m in 2025; income tax on prizes, paid by bettors in their annual returns; and future authorisations, with R$30m licences valid for five years. It was reported that without a regulated market there would be no renewals or new companies, and that the provisional measure opens the risk of legal claims for compensation.

Reportedly, at the first-half 2026 pace the loss between October 2026 and December 2027 would reach about R$18.2bn, against the government's R$6.8bn, which combines the R$5.3bn for 2027 with R$1.5bn estimated for the end of 2026. BNLData described its projection as conservative, excluding market growth and the 14% GGR rate planned for 2027.

Moretti said the government will send Congress an amendment to the 2027 budget bill to reallocate about R$20bn to accommodate measures announced during the campaign. By the planning ministry's calculations, the package has an impact of R$53.6bn in 2027: R$45.7bn in new spending and R$7.9bn in lower revenue, with betting accounting for most of the revenue loss. The Ministry of Planning confirmed the reallocation in a note on Monday 19 October; the message will be sent to Congress once a rapporteur is appointed for the 2027 budget bill and budget guidelines law. In the note, the ministry said the expenses are supported by legislation and that the execution of public policies cannot be confused with spending motivated by the electoral calendar. The note did not mention the betting revenue loss.

It was reported that Warren Investimentos estimates the total impact at R$87.9bn, with the difference coming mainly from betting and the inclusion of fuel subsidies. Alexandre Andrade, director of the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), said new permanent expenses narrow the room for discretionary spending and that, without a change in mandatory spending rules, "o corte cairia sobre investimento e custeio". The IFI projects a deficit of R$86.1bn in 2027, against the R$18.6bn surplus in the government's bill, and the joint technical note by the Chamber and Senate budget consultancies calculated R$39.8bn in adjustments to accommodate measures announced by President Lula in the campaign, citing the betting ban without an estimated value.

Moretti said the betting loss is not expected to be fully offset and may be absorbed by revisions to oil and inflation projections and by cuts to spending tied to the sector's revenue. It was reported that tax lawyers point to the risk of the cost falling on consumption through the CBS. The sector had gross gaming revenue of R$36.9bn in 2025 and 25.2 million bettors, less than 0.3% of GDP, and BNLData reported that for legal beneficiaries the loss through the end of the authorisations in 2029 reaches R$16bn. It was reported that the destination of this revenue also depends on the second round on 25 October; Flávio Bolsonaro advocates keeping sports betting and ending only online casinos, but neither he nor Lula mentioned betting in the Band debate on Sunday 18 October.