Brazil betting ban could cost R$18.2bn, BNLData estimate shows

A possible ban on betting companies in Brazil could reduce public finances by R$18.2bn between October 2026 and December 2027, according to data compiled by BNLData. The Ministry of Planning estimates the loss at R$6.8bn over the same period.

Planning Minister Bruno Moretti confirmed the government's estimate in an interview published on 19 October in Valor. It comprises R$1.5bn in lost revenue in late 2026 and R$5.3bn in 2027. Moretti said the government is considering reducing spending tied to betting revenue to limit the effect on the federal budget.

Reportedly, the R$5.3bn the government cites is largely earmarked for sports, tourism, public security, health, education and social security programmes under Law No. 14,790/2023. The consultancy cautioned that this sum "is not a measure of the overall revenue loss to the Federal government if betting is banned". Over the 12 months to June 2026, legal beneficiaries took in an average of R$413.5m per month. Applying the 14% gross gaming revenue allocation rate that Complementary Law No. 224/2025 sets for 2027, the annual figure comes to roughly R$5.3bn.

The government's estimates also take into account an expected reduction in betting activity from restrictions in place, Moretti said. BNLData said the available data does not show such a decrease in the first half of 2026: GGR was R$20.07bn, up 15.3% year on year, and June set a monthly record of R$513m allocated to legal beneficiaries.

The government's calculation does not include several revenue streams from regulated operators. Federal taxes from the sector, including corporate income tax, social contribution on net profit, PIS/Cofins and social security contributions, totalled R$9.95bn in 2025. The inspection fee brought in R$105m in 2025, and operator authorisations brought in R$30m and are valid for five years. Federal revenues from the sector totalled R$7.284bn in the first half of 2026.

BNLData describes its own figure as cautious, since it leaves out both market expansion and the larger allocation rate scheduled for 2027. By contrast, a financial institution that Valor consulted puts the 2027 impact at R$11.2bn, a smaller number that is still well above the government's. That estimate rests on the premise that some of the funds previously wagered would return to the economy and be taxed as consumption.

This discussion is taking place before the government revises its 2027 budget proposal to make room for spending measures it has already announced. According to the Planning Ministry, the package as a whole would carry a R$53.6bn effect in 2027: spending would rise by R$45.7bn while revenue would fall by R$7.9bn.

The Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), which is attached to the Senate, projects a R$86.1bn deficit for 2027, while the government's budget proposal calls for a surplus of R$18.6bn. IFI director Alexandre Andrade said that without changes to the rules for mandatory spending there would be less room for discretionary spending, because "cuts would be made first on investment and operating expenses".

BNLData said the final effect of a prohibition would depend on the extent to which it is implemented, the extent to which existing licences are affected, and the potential impact on spending allocation and the government's ability to offset the loss of revenue from the regulated sector.