Brazil labour study links bet regulation to 363 gambling-related work absences in 2025

A study by the Subsecretaria de Estatísticas e Estudos do Trabalho of Brazil's Ministry of Labour links the regulation of fixed-odds betting to a rise in work absences for gambling disorder. The number of INSS-insured workers receiving temporary incapacity benefit for ludopatia rose from 67 in 2023 to 136 in 2024 and reached 363 in 2025, the report said. The study was disclosed during a campaign period, the report said.

Data obtained by BNLData from the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas of the Ministry of Finance (SPA/MF) under the Access to Information Law show 28,128,172 unique CPFs with active registration in the regulated market in 2025, and 30,895,934 in the first half of 2026. The 363 absences in 2025 correspond to 0.0013% of that year's bettor base, or about one case for every 77,000 bettors.

Paula Montagner, the subsecretary responsible for the study, acknowledged that there is not enough data to confirm that the rise in absences was caused by gambling disorder, according to the report. The study itself states that the initial figures must be treated with care because they represent small groups with access to the benefit, the report said. The study nevertheless concludes that legalisation shows a close association with the rise in ludopatia, and the subsecretary advocates restricting gambling as a mental health measure, the report said.

BNLData said the report states that bets were permitted in December 2023, but that fixed-odds betting was authorised by Law 13.756/2018 and operated for five years without regulation, supervision or advertising rules. Law 14.790/2023 imposed rules on a market that already existed, and the regulated market only began operating on 1 January 2025. Advertising was unrestricted before regulation and became subject to restrictions under SPA/MF ordinances, it said.

Reportedly, the rise in absences may reflect more diagnoses as well as more cases, since ludopatia gained visibility, the SUS created a specific telephone service and more workers sought treatment and medical assessment. It was reported that the contribution on GGR was 12% in 2025 and 13% in 2026, with about 10% of the amount passed to legal beneficiaries going to Seguridade Social and another 1% to the Ministry of Health.

SPA/MF spreadsheets obtained by BNLData under the Access to Information Law show that Seguridade Social received R$450.9m from bets in 2025, the same year the INSS granted the 363 incapacity benefits. The Ministry of Health received R$44.9m in 2025 and a further R$24.19m in the first half of 2026, about R$69m over 18 months, for the programme Cuidado para Pessoas com Problemas Relacionados a Jogos de Apostas, which includes the SUS telephone service. In 17 months of effective collection, the GGR contribution raised R$6.64bn for legal beneficiaries, it said.

BNLData projected that legal beneficiaries could lose up to R$18bn by the end of the concessions in 2029 under a prohibition. It said more than 40% of the market already operated illegally before the MP, and that with a prohibition this share would become the only available market; illegal platforms do not verify age, offer self-exclusion, block beneficiaries of social programmes or collect funds for the SUS or INSS, it said.

According to the World Health Organization, the standardised global estimate of gambling harm remains limited, but available surveys indicate that about 1.2% of the world's adult population has some gambling disorder. Applied to the 28.1 million active bettors in 2025, that rate would imply more than 337,000 people with the disorder in Brazil, against which the recorded absences represent about 0.1%, it said. It was reported that social-security absences do not measure the prevalence of the disorder because they cover only formal workers and INSS-insured people who underwent medical assessment.