Brazil counts thousands of betting sites but no one measures where bettors went

Eleven days after licensed betting sites went offline on 6 October, three sources are attempting to size the illegal market that remained. The Justice Ministry counted 16,627 sites referred for blocking, Legitbet recorded 30,844 active illegal sites, and CNN Brasil identified at least four platforms with international domains operating openly for Brazilians, according to the report. The figures count addresses, links and channels, meaning supply; none measures how many bettors left.bet.br platforms for.com operators.

The ministry measures addresses referred for blocking, not sites confirmed offline. In its first balance on 2 October, the MJSP and the SPA/MF reported 10,435 sites referred between 25 September and 1 October, plus 3,040 pages, profiles and groups on social networks. The figure rose to 13,241 sites on 7 October and 16,627 on 15 October; including social media channels the total reached 20,318, up 21% in eight days, with listed Telegram groups alone holding more than 18.4 million users in the 15 October balance. BNLData reported a discrepancy to be clarified with the ministry: on 16 October CNN cited a balance of 24,783 sites, pages, profiles and groups removed, reaching 19.5 million users, and it is not clear whether the difference from the 20,318 of 15 October is an update or a different counting criterion.

The ministry's financial figure is the closest to a measure of demand: before the measure, bettors moved about R$600m a day on authorised platforms, and there is no equivalent number for clandestine sites. Legitbet measures suspicious links and domains in the channels it monitors. Between 8 and 23 September, before the measure, it detected an average of 77 suspicious links a day; between 1 and 7 October the average rose to 549, about seven times more, with a peak of 948 on 7 October. In the week of 22 to 28 September, which includes the measure's publication, the platform confirmed 6,401 new illegal sites; over the holiday of 9 to 12 October there were 221 new sites and 1,439 links, mainly on Telegram, and at the end of the holiday 30,844 clandestine sites remained accessible.

The ANJL, which maintains Legitbet, makes two caveats: classifying a site as suspicious does not amount to a declaration of illegality, and the data do not allow the conclusion that bettors migrated from the regulated market to the clandestine one. The report also notes method limits: on 5 October the platform began counting only sites aimed at the Brazilian public, affecting before-and-after comparison; the earlier average covers 16 days and the later one seven; and Legitbet is maintained by an association contesting the measure at the STF.

CNN Brasil's survey, published on 16 October, found that authorised.br platforms went offline on schedule while sites with international extensions remained accessible, at least four of them operating and some promoted by influencers. Analyst Elijonas Maia said about 10,000 addresses were taken down between 6 and 16 October, while noting this does not correspond to 10,000 companies because one operator can hold several domains to circumvent blocking. The most visible case is Stake: a ge report showed stake.com remains in Portuguese, accepts registration with Brazilian documents and offers bets on the Brasileirão; a deposit in reais did not work but one in cryptocurrency did, a method barred in the regulated market, and the injunction allowing the company to operate until 25 October was overturned by the TRF-3 on 9 October. Legitbet data indicate a similar pattern: on 8 October, 43.6% of suspicious domains used the.com extension, against 7.3% with.bet.

On where the audience went, BNLData reported that no one knows how much went to .com sites; available indicators suggest most stopped betting and a smaller part migrated. The only traffic data come from Blask: on 1 October the reach of .bet.br sites was 74% below normal and searches for regulated brands fell 83%, while traffic to unlicensed sites rose at most 11% in the first week and the offshore operators' share of betting searches in the country went from 4% to 16%. The report itself concludes that most regulated bettors simply stopped, for now, but Blask did not publish its methodology, the 1 October figure predates the definitive exit of authorised sites on 6 October, and absolute user numbers were not published.

Before the measure, the illegal market already held 38% to 44% of online bets in the first half of 2026, according to LCA Consultores with data from the Instituto Locomotiva commissioned by the IBJR. Blask indicates that 57% of Brazilian bettors had visited an unlicensed platform in the 90 days before the prohibition, and LCA projects that illegal betting will move between R$26bn and R$30bn in 2026. Blask cites India, which prohibited online money games in August 2025, as a precedent: there domestic platforms lost 73% of reach in three months and 63% of users remained active, most on foreign operators, a reference rather than a forecast for Brazil, according to the report.