Wolfe Research sees Wynn Al Marjan Island exceeding revenue forecasts

Wolfe Research expects Wynn Al Marjan Island, Wynn Resorts' planned casino resort in the United Arab Emirates, to generate more gaming revenue than the company's current forecasts, the investment firm said. Analyst Peter Supino made the assessment as Wynn Resorts shares were down about 37% year-to-date in 2026, and Wolfe Research sees the stock rising by as much as 60% by the end of 2027.

According to figures Wynn released in December 2025, the Al Marjan Island resort might bring in as much as $1.66 billion in gaming revenue each year. The company also said adjusted property EBITDA, after management fees, should land between $390 million and $570 million annually. Wolfe Research puts a value of roughly $48 per share on Wynn's 40% interest in the project. Its $128 target price is built on 8.5 times projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA, with the UAE investment's value added on top. Earlier forecasts had estimated the UAE's gross gaming revenue at $3 billion to $5 billion a year as additional properties open.

Wolfe Research draws a parallel with Singapore, which has strong tourism demand but only a small number of casino resorts. That market is currently served by two of the most profitable gaming properties in the world, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa, both large integrated resorts. Industry projections suggest the UAE might eventually be home to four or five casino resorts. On that basis, Wynn Al Marjan Island stands to win a meaningful portion of the country's gaming revenues, particularly during its opening years.

Supino expects Wynn's results in Macau, where it runs two integrated resorts, to come under pressure in the near term. Uncertainty around the UAE expansion has been heightened further by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The first integrated resort in the Middle East to hold a licensed commercial casino is expected to be Wynn Al Marjan Island, which is due to open in September 2027. Situated off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah, the project carries an estimated value of some $5.7 billion.

Progress on the main tower, guest accommodations and the resort's supporting infrastructure was reported in construction updates earlier in 2026. In March, Wynn said building work had resumed following a short halt caused by the regional conflict involving Iran. Wolfe Research argues that investors have not yet factored the project's potential into the share price, and the firm calls the UAE development central to its positive stance on Wynn's stock.