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US prediction market disputes may reach Supreme Court, analyst says

Regulation

A Stifel analyst said the US Supreme Court could begin considering challenges to prediction market operations in the coming years, possibly as early as 2026. Kalshi faces disputes in Nevada and Massachusetts, and its position is that its sports event contracts fall under federal rules because it is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; critics argue the contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting.

A federal ruling could clarify how prediction market sports contracts are treated alongside state gambling rules.

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Deals & M&A

Kalshi disputes analyst findings on prediction-market user losses

Kalshi disputed a Citizens analyst’s assessment that prediction-market users lose money faster than sports bettors. Analyst Jordan Bender’s report, based on Juice Reel data, estimated that the lowest-loss quartile of prediction-market users lost about 28 cents per dollar spent over 90 days, against 11 cents for new sports bettors; Kalshi also rejected the report’s conclusion while backing away from its earlier extortion allegation.

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