Democratic lawmakers proposed legislation to restrict betting on military actions and regime changes, according to the report. The report also says regulators are examining wagers on predictions of strikes against Iran, but it does not identify the authorities involved or describe a formal action.
The proposed restrictions could affect prediction-market operators offering wagers on military actions or regime changes.
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New Jersey senators Nicholas Scutari and Paul Sarlo introduced a bill to regulate prediction markets and require operators to obtain state permits. The proposal would add a 10% tax surcharge to prediction-market trades, including sports-related contracts, and set a $5 million initial licensing fee for firms offering sports contracts; it has been referred to the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee.
A draft bill from the House Armed Services Committee would require the US defence secretary to set rules barring military personnel and Pentagon civilian employees from prediction-market trading using non-public information. The proposal follows prosecutors’ allegations that a special forces soldier made about $400,000 trading on Polymarket using classified information; the soldier has pleaded not guilty.
US senators have introduced a bipartisan bill that would prohibit prediction-market contracts on sporting events and casino-like activities while allowing contracts with economic purposes such as hedging, according to the report. Senator Adam Schiff said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission lacks the staff and technical capacity to oversee the sector. Industry representatives dispute claims that the platforms should be treated as gambling.
Pennsylvania House Bill 2497 proposes a licensing framework for prediction markets in the state. The proposal sets a $1 million initial and annual renewal fee, limits participation to people aged 21 or older and would tax gross wagering revenue at 20%, with an additional 2% local assessment.
Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced a bill on 23 March that would bar CFTC-registered entities from listing event contracts resembling sports bets or casino games. A separate bipartisan proposal would prohibit federal officials and employees from using inside information to trade such contracts; Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour criticised the legislation, while DraftKings shares fell 12% during the week, according to the report.