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Researchers estimate insider traders made US$143m on prediction markets

Regulation

Researchers from Columbia University and the University of Haifa estimated that traders with confidential information made US$143m on Polymarket, according to the report. It cited a study finding that bets classified as high-risk had a 52% success rate, compared with 14% across bets generally. The report also described changes to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight and disputes over state authority.

The reported findings raise regulatory and market-integrity questions for prediction-market operators and US regulators.

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Regulation

North Carolina governor bars state workers from insider prediction market betting

North Carolina Governor Josh Stein signed an executive order barring state employees from using non-public work information to bet on prediction markets, according to reports. Stein said he had no reason to believe state employees were already making such bets. The order builds on the North Carolina State Ethics Act; a separate bill to ban prediction market betting statewide has not been scheduled for a hearing.

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