Moody’s Ratings downgraded SJM Holdings’ corporate family rating to B2 from B1 and changed its outlook to negative from stable. It cut ratings on bonds issued by Champion Path Holdings and SJM International to B3 from B2, citing high leverage, weaker earnings and refinancing needs.
The negative outlook flags refinancing and liquidity risks for SJM Holdings as debt maturities approach.
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CLSA and Citigroup analysts estimated that Macau casino industry EBITDA rose 7% to 8% year on year in the first quarter, behind the 14.3% increase in gross gaming revenue. Citigroup put industry EBITDA margin at about 27%, while CLSA estimated 25.3%.
Macau’s gaming sector is expected to grow EBITDA by about 8% year on year in Q1 2026, according to Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau. Gross gaming revenue reached MOP65.87 billion, up 14%, while VIP performance and hold rates weighed on margins. Citigroup expects Sands China to record the strongest operator EBITDA growth, at about 20%.
Macau Legend expects a loss of about HKD1.57bn for 2025, according to a company filing reported on 26 March. The company attributed the wider deficit mainly to a HKD1.18bn impairment after its SJM service agreement ended and Legend Palace closed on 12 November 2025; it also booked HKD71m in employee-related provisions. Macau Legend reported a HKD623m loss for 2024.
Fitch assigned a BB- rating to proposed senior unsecured notes from SJM International, guaranteed by SJM Holdings, and maintained a Negative outlook. It expects SJM’s EBITDA leverage to rise above eight times in 2025 before easing to around five times by 2027, citing Grand Lisboa Palace performance and market-share losses.
Fitch expects SJM Holdings to recapture at least half of the market share from its closed satellite casinos, based on its use of reassigned tables at self-owned properties. SJM said management saw an improved ability to retain that business in Q4 2025 compared with Q3; the full effect of the closures and table transfers may not become clear until well into 2026.