Jefferies analyst keeps Aristocrat top in slots as Light & Wonder gains

Jefferies Equity Research analyst Kai Erman said Aristocrat Leisure remains the leading supplier of slot machines while Light & Wonder has scope to gain share, in an investor note published on 5 October 2026. The note followed a review of new slot products at Global Gaming Expo 2026 in Las Vegas, according to the note as reported.

Erman cited Aristocrat's 30% floor share and 50% handle share as signs that additional floor space is increasingly likely to go to Light & Wonder. He said he expected Aristocrat to keep its leadership position in both for-sale and leased gaming.

Of Light & Wonder, Erman said the company has a meaningful opportunity to grow share in key markets, which he said should translate into faster revenue growth driven by leased, charitable and international share gains. He met executives of both companies and found their presentations compelling, and was particularly impressed with the breadth of Light & Wonder's product stream.

Erman pointed to fresh Monsters titles as well as updates to UFL and Kong, and described the slate as strengthening momentum in both outright sales and participation. He praised Aristocrat's launch of the leased Reign Double cabinet and the sell-through Reign Single, and noted that the company restated a renewed focus on its Dragon Link range, which the source describes as a quartet of games.

Neither manufacturer reported a slowdown in revenue, despite what was thought to be a sluggish August for casinos. Erman said greater rivalry between casinos on the Las Vegas Strip was spurring business for manufacturers, particularly makers of premium slots, and that higher transport, diesel and labour costs continue to support replacement demand.

Customer feedback on Light & Wonder's Shufflemaster updates and table-game offerings struck Erman as favourable. Turning to other suppliers, he observed that IGT was undergoing a prominent rebranding, and he saw the company shifting its focus to the Class II segment and to fintech products. In Erman's view, IGT management treated Class II as a significant opening, one that could sit alongside any Class III share that Light & Wonder might pick up.

Charitable gambling emerged as another growth avenue, and Erman reported that Grover Gaming, a Light & Wonder subsidiary, “highlighted a strong product pipeline and faster conversion of traditional casino content into charitable markets.” A new game cabinet aimed at charitable play is due from Light & Wonder in 2027. The company also intended to keep a charitable focus on Cascada, a game already live in Kentucky that was set to reach Ohio in the fourth quarter.

In Erman's assessment, suppliers offering distinctive content stand to gain share over the long run as casino-style features such as progressive jackpots become more widespread. Abroad, he regarded Light & Wonder's share declines in Australia and New Zealand as recoverable, helped by late-summer titles including Rolling Drums and Big Steam. He called the company's Antipodes portfolio especially deep, partly owing to the November arrival of Frankenstein and Bride of Frankenstein, each first designed for Australian players with what he termed “unique prize board mechanics.”

For Aristocrat, iGaming looked like a continuing opening, especially given how well Lightning Link has performed. Erman reported that the game “has driven a meaningful improvement in market share rankings since launch, and (Aristocrat) expressed confidence that the franchise can become a durable long-term contributor.” Light & Wonder countered that Lightning Link had not visibly affected its own business, and Erman credited the company with getting better at carrying hit land-based content over to digital channels.