Istituto Friedman asks Italy to clarify gaming revenue plans in 2027 budget

The Istituto Milton Friedman has asked Italy's Ministry of Economy and Finance to clarify how the government intends to raise the additional gaming revenue projected in the 2027-2029 budget planning document, the Documento programmatico di bilancio (DPB). The institute said the DPB forecasts higher gaming revenue without specifying the legislative measures that would produce it.

According to the institute, the DPB estimates additional gaming resources equal to 0.03% of GDP in 2027 and 2028, and 0.02% in 2029. Dario Peirone, general director of the Istituto Milton Friedman, said companies and operators have the right to know whether the executive intends a new tax increase, a revision of existing levies or measures targeting specific segments of the supply chain.

The institute said public gambling in Italy provides 145,000 jobs and about €11.5bn a year to the treasury, of which €8.9bn comes from the land-based network alone. It said the machine supply chain has faced a structural contraction, with a net loss of almost 10,000 workers between 2018 and 2025.

Peirone said a further tax increase would cause the collapse of land-based gambling, which he said is already under bureaucratic and tax pressure, and would accelerate the closure of legal businesses, destroying jobs and reducing state tax revenue. He also warned of a waterbed effect, saying demand for gambling does not fall to zero when taxes rise but moves, and that compressing legal supply favours organised crime and illegal platforms.

The institute also cited uncertainty over the territorial reorganisation of concessions and the absence of transitional regulatory protections for companies. Peirone asked the government to end the stalemate and provide legal certainty, and said further extensions of machine concessions, made necessary by the missing territorial reorganisation, should carry no additional charges because the supply chain cannot bear further costs for delays not caused by companies.