IBIA warns Brazil betting ban may shift R$25bn offshore

Brazil's ban on licensed betting has removed the requirement for operators to report suspicious bets, the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) said in its third-quarter 2026 integrity report, which gave the country's pre-ban regulatory framework a score of 77 out of 100. The framework was ended on 25 September 2026, according to the report.

The IBIA said the score was based on the same 27 criteria it applies to all jurisdictions. Brazil's 77 points placed it above Portugal on 68 and below Great Britain on 86. The total comprised 22 out of 30 for regulation, 12 out of 20 for taxation, 19 out of 20 for product, 16 out of 20 for advertising and eight out of 10 for integrity.

Between 1 January 2025 and 25 September 2026, the regulated market had more than 80 licensed operators serving about 25 million bettors, the report said. It put the market's annualised size at R$40bn and said it channelled 70% of gross gaming revenue from betting and gaming into the legal environment. Over the same period, 13,000 illegal sites were blocked, along with payment and advertising blocks.

From 1 January 2025, every federally licensed operator was required to monitor suspicious bets, report them to the regulator and join an independent integrity body, according to the report. Match-fixing became a crime carrying a sentence of two to six years. The IBIA recorded an average of 11 alerts a year on Brazil between 2021 and 2024 (11, 14, 11 and seven), rising to 25 in 2025, the first year of the regulated market.

The IBIA said an alert indicates a suspicious bet, not proven manipulation, so the increase reflects greater surveillance rather than necessarily more fraud. "A regulação tornou visíveis as apostas suspeitas. A proibição desliga isso", the association said.

Citing estimates from H2 Gambling Capital dated 29 September, the report said the regulated market, at R$40bn a year, falls to zero, with licences having expired on 25 October. The offshore market rises from R$17bn to R$42bn, so R$25bn previously bet with regulated houses moves to operators abroad, almost two thirds of the legal market.

The IBIA listed three direct losses: the end of the duty to report, with no one now obliged to report suspicious bets on Brazilian sport; the end of the evidence trail, with the regulator and police losing access to betting and account data; and sanctions at risk, because operator monitoring supported sporting punishments and criminal convictions.

The association recommended that Brazil reconsider the ban through the ordinary legislative process, with a published impact assessment. It also asked the country to keep its integrity framework and to focus enforcement on offshore operators. The ban was made by provisional measure, MP 1.394.

Globally, the IBIA reported 67 suspicious betting alerts to the competent authorities in Q3 2026, against 76 in the previous quarter. The alerts covered eight sports: table tennis with 20 (30%), all at events outside ITTF competitions; football with 15 (22%); tennis with 11 (16%); cricket with nine (13%); esports with eight (12%); greyhound racing with two; basketball with one; and badminton with one.

Europe accounted for 64% of the cases, led by Poland with 12 alerts and the Czech Republic with seven. Global alerts followed at 12%, then Africa at 10%, South America at nine per cent, North America at three per cent and Asia at two per cent, the last with a single case in Israel. All six South American alerts were in football: three in Ecuador, two in Brazil and one in Argentina.

The IBIA said it brings together more than 90 companies with more than 200 betting brands. Its members monitor more than 1.5 million sports events a year and analyse more than $300bn in global betting volume, according to the association.