IBIA examines potential consequences of gambling prohibition in Brazil

The International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) has published a study on what Brazil could lose if its prohibition on fixed-odds betting and online gambling is carried through, according to the association. The study draws on regulatory assessments, market estimates and data on suspicious betting, and examines consequences for sports integrity, consumers and the regulated market.

Brazil imposed a national prohibition on fixed-odds betting, including sports betting and online gambling, on 25 September, 21 months after opening its regulated betting market. The measure is being implemented while Congress considers whether to make it permanent. The Brazilian regulatory regime, with licensing and rules intended to protect consumers, monitor betting activity and safeguard sports integrity, has been in operation for less than two years, the IBIA said.

The IBIA said the prohibition risks moving betting activity outside regulatory supervision and weakening the mechanisms used to detect and prevent match-fixing. It said cooperation between public authorities, sports bodies and independent integrity monitoring bodies should be maintained, with enforcement focused on blocking unlicensed offshore operators in order to protect consumers, tax revenue and market integrity.

In less than two years Brazil has authorised more than 80 operators, introduced customer identification requirements, targeted illegal betting sites and payment channels and set up a centralised self-exclusion system, according to the study. Licensed operators have been required to monitor suspicious bets, report concerns and integrate with national or international sports integrity monitoring organisations.

The IBIA's comparative assessment of regulatory frameworks gives Brazil a score of 77 out of 100, placing it between Portugal (68) and Great Britain (86). The association said this represents significant progress for such a young market, and that the value of the framework lies in the information it generates: suspicious betting patterns can be identified, assessed and shared with regulators, sports bodies and law enforcement. Without a functioning regulated market, that information becomes harder to obtain, it said.

H2 Gambling Capital estimates that, without a legal alternative, about 60% of the activity currently handled by the regulated Brazilian market, equal to around R$25bn, could move to unlicensed operators. The illegal market could consequently grow from the current €3bn to around €7.5bn, according to the estimate. The IBIA said consumers could end up betting with operators outside Brazilian regulatory jurisdiction, without the same identity checks, responsible gambling protections or reporting obligations, while authorities would lose access to information licensed operators are required to provide.

On sports integrity, the IBIA said it reported 25 suspicious betting cases concerning Brazilian sport in 2025, the first full year of operation of the regulated market, against an annual average of 11 reports between 2021 and 2024. The association said the increase should not be read as proof that regulation has made Brazilian sport less safe, but is consistent with improved detection and reporting capacity in a market where licensed operators were required to identify and report suspicious activity. A fall in reports after a prohibition would not necessarily mean fewer suspicious bets, only less information about them, it said.

The IBIA said the regulated Brazilian market was not without problems, citing advertising, consumer protection, operator supervision and the fight against illegal operators as areas needing more attention, and argued these are reasons to improve regulation rather than abandon it. The association called on Congress to reconsider the prohibition and to let the future of the Brazilian betting market be decided through the ordinary legislative process, based on open dialogue with the sector, a clear risk assessment and a published impact assessment. It said the current integrity protection system, including suspicious betting monitoring, reporting procedures and cooperation with authorities, should be preserved, with enforcement focused on unlicensed operators and gambling-related harm addressed through targeted measures within the regulated market.