Hidalgo says betting ban was Lula's own goal as debt stems from rates

Murilo Hidalgo, director of Paraná Pesquisas, said the ban on sports betting and online games was a self-inflicted wound for President Lula, in an interview with journalist Leonardo Attuch on TV 247. The interview was recorded on Tuesday 6 October, two days after the first election round, in which Flávio Bolsonaro finished about two points ahead of Lula in valid votes, according to the report.

Hidalgo said the government had attributed household debt to betting when the cause lies elsewhere. He said surveys by his institute indicate that between 75% and 80% of bettors play for fun rather than from addiction, and he compared a ban on betting to shutting down Caixa lotteries or ending beer because a minority overindulges. He said the main problem is that money does not last to the end of the month, with people taking on R$50, R$60 or R$80 of debt monthly, and that high interest rates leave indebted people unable to pay.

According to the report, Hidalgo said the government did not anticipate that the measure would affect football supporters' groups and clubs. He referred to the announcement of Medida Provisória nº 1.394/2026, made on 25 September, nine days before the first round. He said Lula announced it on a Friday and did not speak about betting again.

The report says the measure was supported by an Atlas/Bloomberg poll published the day before the announcement, which indicated 75% support for the ban, and that the campaign linked the opponent to betting with the slogan “Flávio é bet. Lula é o caminho”. After the first round, reports by Estadão, Folha, CNN Brasil and O Globo recorded that members of the campaign itself began to see the measure as one of the errors of the final stretch.

Hidalgo said the contest is not decided, that the two-point difference is reversible and that the second-round debates should weigh on the result. He predicted that the first polls would show Flávio ahead by more than the margin of error, and said there is currently a favouritism toward Flávio Bolsonaro. He listed the economy, public security and the crisis involving the STF as the three factors that, according to the institute's quantitative and qualitative surveys, put Flávio ahead.