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CFTC urges caution on prediction-market mention contracts

Regulation

The CFTC advised designated contract markets on Tuesday, 22 September, to exercise caution before listing event contracts tied to whether a person says particular words or interacts with someone. The staff advisory is informational and creates no new obligations, but the CFTC said platforms remain responsible for compliance with existing requirements.

Prediction-market operators are being advised to assess manipulation risks before listing these contracts.

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Regulation

Prediction markets could seek sportsbook licences if Supreme Court rules against contracts

Attorney Josh Sterling said prediction market operators could pursue state sportsbook licences or expand into other financial products if the Supreme Court rules against their sports event contracts. New Jersey has asked the court to review the dispute after the Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April. The justices have not agreed to hear the case.

Attorney Josh Sterling told the NEXTPredict conference in New York on Friday that prediction market firms have options should the justices side against them on sports event contracts. Those options, the Milbank partner and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission official said, include applying for sportsbook licences, moving deeper into other financial products, or creating offerings that earn more. Covers reported his remarks. New Jersey wants the Supreme Court to settle the matter following the Third Circuit's April decision for Kalshi, but the justices have not yet granted review.

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