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CFTC proposes treating event contracts as swaps and excludes gambling

Regulation

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed classifying event contracts linked to cultural events, weather, politics and sports as swaps, while an interim final rule excludes casino-style gambling products from that definition. Both measures carry 30-day comment periods, and the interim rule takes effect upon publication in the Federal Register, the CFTC said.

The measures could affect how prediction-market operators and states approach oversight of sports-related contracts.

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Regulation

Kalshi cases await Supreme Court review decision over sports event contracts

The US Supreme Court has yet to decide whether to review prediction market litigation involving Kalshi. Legal observers warned that declining review could leave conflicting appeals court decisions unresolved and operators facing separate state disputes over the regulatory status of sports event contracts.

A report dated 12 October 2026 notes that the justices have so far given no indication of whether they will take up the Kalshi prediction market disputes. In the view of legal observers quoted in that report, refusing the petitions would probably push operators into a state-by-state contest over sports event contracts that varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

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