The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules for prediction markets, according to a report published on 11 June 2026. The proposal would create a framework for assessing certain event contracts, while the American Gaming Association criticised the regulator’s approach, the report said.
The proposal could affect which event contracts prediction-market operators may offer.
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US Representative Michael Baumgartner introduced legislation to bar federally regulated prediction markets from offering wildfire event contracts, reportedly amid concerns about incentives to start or worsen fires. Baumgartner said there was no evidence that a prediction-market trader had started a wildfire; the proposal follows a letter from nine Democratic senators urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to reject such contracts.
The American Gaming Association estimated that Kalshi users aged 18 to 20 generated more than $8.844 billion in sports-related trading volume through 27 October, based on a 4% figure the association said Kalshi had published and later changed. The AGA argues that users aged 18 to 20 can access these markets despite age limits of 21 for sports betting in numerous US states.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated that Kalshi users aged 18 to 20 generated more than $8.844bn in sports trading volume through 27 October. According to the AGA, the calculation rests on information that Kalshi published on its website and later changed. In that information, the AGA said, Kalshi stated that users aged 18 to 20 accounted for 4% of its trading volume.
Executives from the American Gaming Association and the Sports Betting Alliance discussed how state-level regulation, tax policy and illegal operators may affect US sports betting. The source notes that the US Supreme Court decided PASPA on 14 May 2018.
New York sports bettors wagered more than $2.4bn in September, up 5% from September 2025, according to the New York State Gaming Commission. Handle for the first six months of the state's 2026/2027 fiscal year reached nearly $12.6bn, up 6.9% year on year, while sportsbook revenue fell 5.8% to $1.1bn. Prediction-market platforms dispute the gaming industry's claim that their trading diverts business from state-regulated sportsbooks.
New York sports bettors wagered more than $2.4bn in September, the New York State Gaming Commission reported. That was 5% more than in September 2025, an increase of nearly $114m in wagers.
US Senator Ted Cruz is preparing legislation that would give state and tribal governments authority over sports-related contracts offered by prediction markets, citing Bloomberg Law. Cruz intends to file the bill after the 3 November midterm elections. The measure would bar operators from offering contracts linked to gambling activities, including sports betting, without approval from the relevant state or tribal government.
A bill granting state and tribal governments say over sports contracts sold by prediction markets is being drafted by US Senator Ted Cruz, Bloomberg Law reported. He plans to introduce it once the November 3 midterm elections are over. As of now, the text is absent from Congress' website.