The CFTC issued an amended order allowing Polymarket to operate an intermediated trading platform in the US, according to the report. Polymarket said users will be able to trade through futures commission merchants; the company must still meet further requirements to run federally regulated exchanges.
The order allows Polymarket to pursue US trading through intermediaries while further requirements remain outstanding.
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The US mid-term election brought Democrats control of the House and Senate, while state regulators and prediction-market operators continue to dispute the legality of sports event contracts. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport asked the Supreme Court in September to review whether federal law prevents states from regulating those contracts; a law professor quoted in the report said he expects the court to hear the challenge.
New Jersey Atty. Gen. Jennifer Davenport petitioned the Supreme Court in September to consider whether states may regulate sports offerings on prediction markets. Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in the mid-term election.
ASIC chair Sarah Court said the regulator remains unconvinced that retail customers should trade prediction-market contracts in Australia. ASIC said the contracts can resemble bets with all-or-nothing outcomes and warned that Australian financial services licensees remain responsible for their legal obligations when facilitating access to offshore platforms.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has again criticised prediction markets and says it is still not persuaded that retail customers ought to trade them. The newest remarks came from Sarah Court, who chairs ASIC, and follow by only months a warning to Australians about offshore prediction platforms.
Kalshi recorded more than $1.1 billion in election trading during the 10 days around the US midterms, while parlays generated $25.3 billion over the same period, according to analysis of prediction-market data. Election trading accounted for 3% of platform volume; volume measures contracts exchanged, not revenue retained by the platform.
Kalshi processed more than $1.1 billion on elections during the 10 days surrounding the midterms, only 3% of the platform's volume. Over the same period, Kalshi processed $25.3 billion in parlays and also $6.1 billion in non-parlay sports contracts.
Prediction markets recorded average daily trading volume of $4.13bn in October, up 55% from September, according to figures attributed to Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Open interest rose 45% to $3.27bn, while sports contracts accounted for 78% of total volume. Polymarket's average daily volume reached $655m, up 50% month on month.
A federal judge denied Joseph Giganti Sr.’s request to block Wisconsin’s restriction on voting in an election a person has wagered on. The ruling leaves the restriction in force but does not decide whether prediction-market contracts count as wagers under state law; the judge accepted that interpretation only for the injunction request.