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Brazilian opinion columns question betting ban’s legal basis and effectiveness

Regulation2 min read

An opinion column on a Brazilian betting industry site said two editorials published on 5 November questioned the legal basis and likely effectiveness of Brazil’s MP 1.394/2026 betting ban. It said one newspaper opposed betting but criticised the measure’s abrupt use, while a columnist favoured strict regulation over a total ban. The source also reported that Brazil’s Supreme Court grouped challenges to the measure with other cases, without setting a hearing date.

Brazil’s Lula government banned betting through provisional measure MP 1.394/2026 nine days before the first election round, a move criticised by two newspaper opinion pieces that questioned whether the ban would work, Magno José wrote in an opinion column on a Brazilian betting industry site.

An Estadão editorial opposed betting’s original legalisation and argued that Congress should reverse it through legislation rather than a provisional measure. It said Congress had approved laws permitting and regulating betting, with licence fees and taxes on winnings, and argued that the measure’s urgency was political and electoral.

Folha columnist Mariliz Pereira Jorge proposed ending instant-result games while retaining sports betting under strict rules rather than a complete ban.

The Secretariat of Prizes and Betting’s rules had prohibited credit cards and cryptoassets, required deposits and withdrawals through an account belonging to the bettor, and imposed identity and age checks, self-exclusion and time and deposit limits. Law 14.790/2023 allocated part of gambling revenue to the health ministry; José said this provided a legal basis for company-funded psychological care proposed by Pereira Jorge. He argued that removing online casino games would send players to illegal sites.

José disputed Pereira Jorge’s claim that Italy’s illegal gambling market handled €20bn a year, twice the formal sector’s volume. He said estimates of about €20bn circulated in the industry and a LUISS university study put the figure at €29.8bn. He compared those estimates with more than €81.7bn wagered in Italy’s legal online market in 2023, suggesting the comparison might confuse wagering volume with gross gaming revenue. Italy’s 2018 Dignity Decree banned advertising and sponsorship of gambling with cash prizes, while betting remained legal and licensed.

José said the more than 80% who backed ending betting in a Senate website consultation were self-selected and did not constitute a statistical sample.

The STF will hear challenges to the measure alongside ADPF 1212, challenges to Law 14.790 and case RE 966177, following a proposal by Justice Flávio Dino. No date has been set. The Estadão editorial said Congress could have returned the measure but left the decision to the court, expecting not to have to vote on it before it expires on 4 March 2027.

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Brazil betting ban could cut R$18bn from legal beneficiaries by 2029

Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting could remove up to R$18bn in transfers to the legal beneficiaries defined by Law 14.790/2023 by the end of the five-year authorisations in 2029. The GGR contribution raised R$6.64bn over 17 months of the regulated market, and the loss is projected at R$16bn, or R$18bn with the rates already approved for 2027 and 2028. The SPA/MF figures cover net collections from January 2024 to June 2026 and transfers from February 2025 to June 2026.

Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting could remove up to R$18bn in transfers to the legal beneficiaries defined by Law 14.790/2023 by the end of the five-year authorisations in 2029, according to figures obtained from the Treasury via freedom-of-information request and. The measure interrupting the flow is Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1.394/2026, published on 25 September.

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