Italy's 2027 budget draft estimates €952.13m in gaming effects

Italy's draft 2027 budget would produce an estimated €952.13m in positive financial effects in 2027 from its gambling measures, according to a technical report on the draft seen by AGIMEG. The total combines expected revenue from slot and VLT machines, concession extension charges, the fifth Lotto and SuperEnalotto draw, new rules on machines without cash winnings and recovery of arrears from the 2015 one-off levy.

The report breaks the total down by measure: interventions on AWP and VLT machines account for €334m, extensions for betting and machine networks for €281m, bingo including the recalculation of earlier fees for €26.14m, the Gratta e Vinci extension for €188m, the fifth Lotto and SuperEnalotto draw for €30.5m, historic machines without cash winnings for €15m, the LAN halls regime for €5.87m and settlement of the 2015 one-off arrears for €71.62m.

For machines under Article 110 of the consolidated public security law, the report assumes the PREU rises from 24% to 25% on AWP machines and from 8.60% to 9.60% on VLT machines. AWP machines returning at least 70% in winnings would carry a 20% rate, with the maximum cost per game rising from €1 to €2 and the maximum win from €100 to €200.

The revenue estimate also assumes that AWP machines meeting the new parameters take 30% more in stakes than under a scenario without the intervention, which the report links to the higher payout and bet and win limits. Against about 230,000 AWP machines in operation in 2025, it assumes 10% adoption in 2027, equal to 23,000 machines, 30% in 2028, equal to 69,000, and all machines from 2029, reflecting the time needed to produce, certify and put the compliant machines into service. These percentages and the stakes growth are assumptions of the financial estimate.

For AWP machines alone, the report estimates additional revenue of €160m in 2027, €179m in 2028 and €258m from 2029; for VLT machines it gives €174m, €186m and €198m. The combined effect is put at €334m in 2027, €365m in 2028 and €456m a year from 2029.

Extensions until 31 December 2029 would yield €114.5m a year from land-based betting and €166.5m from machine networks, a total of €281m a year over the three-year period. For betting, the report states charges 50% higher than under the previous rules, calculated on a network of 5,693 rights for main activity and 4,180 for ancillary activity, prudentially reduced by 2%, at €14,250 and €8,550 a year per right. For machines, the three-year fee of €150 per AWP nulla osta generates about €36.45m in total, while €7,500 per VLT right produces about €463.03m, split annually as €12.15m and €154.35m.

The Gratta e Vinci concession extension from 30 September 2028 to 31 December 2029 is valued at €188m, payable in two instalments in 2027. The report starts from the €800m paid for a nine-year period and applies a 70% revaluation, of which 38% reflects the growth in stakes between 2009 and 2025 and 32% is an uplift linked to the sole-concessionaire position and the absence of competitive risk; the revalued amount is then apportioned to the 15 months of extension. The two payment deadlines given are 31 March and 30 September 2027.

For the additional Wednesday Lotto and SuperEnalotto draw, the report assumes a prudential 4% increase in stakes against 2025, also taking account of play shifting from other contests, particularly Tuesday and Thursday draws. For 2027 it counts 8.5 months of activity and about five weeks of technical time from adoption of the director's decree ordering the draw. Additional state profit is estimated at €15.7m for Lotto and €14.8m for SuperEnalotto, a total of €30.5m; from 2028 the amounts rise to €22.2m and €20.9m, or €43.1m a year.

The bingo extension, with fees based on turnover, is forecast at €21.5m a year; for 2027 a further €4.64m comes from recalculating fees for the 2018-2026 period, bringing the total effect to €26.14m. The report explains the 81 brackets by the need to tie the fee to the turnover actually achieved by each hall, and states that the reduction to a 15,000-metre minimum road distance concerns the transfer of a concession to another municipality.

For the new LAN halls regime, the report says no reliable data on the spread of such venues is available. The forecast assumes 200 halls and 4,000 stations initially, rising at full operation to 2,300 halls and 46,000 stations, with total estimated revenue from entertainment tax and authorisation contributions of €5.87m in 2027, €66.03m in 2028 and €56.27m in 2029; the difference between the last two years reflects the two-yearly schedule of the contributions. Separately, the one-off payment of €1,000 per machine for historic machines without cash winnings is estimated to produce €15m in 2027, assuming 15,000 machines concerned.

The report puts the sums still outstanding from the 2015 one-off levy at €89.47m and estimates recovery of €71.62m in 2027 through the facilitated settlement and withdrawal of disputes. The 20% limit concerns the reduction granted overall on the outstanding amount, while individual concessionaires' discounts depend on how far they met the original obligation; the table also shows individual percentages above 20%, so no uniform discount for all is envisaged. For the new arrangements for paying lottery prize money, the report does not foresee new or higher charges on public finances.