European authorities have blocked prediction-market platform Polymarket in several jurisdictions, according to the report. France’s ANJ said the platform’s services could constitute unauthorised gambling and warned that prediction markets were not authorised in France; Polymarket then geoblocked French users from trading.
The restrictions affect prediction-market operators’ ability to offer services across European jurisdictions.
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French police opened an investigation into suspected insider trading linked to bets on the Ballon d’Or, according to the report. It said 12 Polymarket accounts correctly predicted the top five in order, with about €250,000 wagered and nearly €200,000 in net winnings; the event organiser said it was investigating and planned to notify authorities.
French police have opened an investigation into suspected insider trading connected to bets on this year's Ballon d'Or award, according to the report. Investigators found activity on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, the report said.
The US mid-term election brought Democrats control of the House and Senate, while state regulators and prediction-market operators continue to dispute the legality of sports event contracts. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport asked the Supreme Court in September to review whether federal law prevents states from regulating those contracts; a law professor quoted in the report said he expects the court to hear the challenge.
New Jersey Atty. Gen. Jennifer Davenport petitioned the Supreme Court in September to consider whether states may regulate sports offerings on prediction markets. Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in the mid-term election.
ASIC chair Sarah Court said the regulator remains unconvinced that retail customers should trade prediction-market contracts in Australia. ASIC said the contracts can resemble bets with all-or-nothing outcomes and warned that Australian financial services licensees remain responsible for their legal obligations when facilitating access to offshore platforms.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has again criticised prediction markets and says it is still not persuaded that retail customers ought to trade them. The newest remarks came from Sarah Court, who chairs ASIC, and follow by only months a warning to Australians about offshore prediction platforms.
Kalshi recorded more than $1.1 billion in election trading during the 10 days around the US midterms, while parlays generated $25.3 billion over the same period, according to analysis of prediction-market data. Election trading accounted for 3% of platform volume; volume measures contracts exchanged, not revenue retained by the platform.
Kalshi processed more than $1.1 billion on elections during the 10 days surrounding the midterms, only 3% of the platform's volume. Over the same period, Kalshi processed $25.3 billion in parlays and also $6.1 billion in non-parlay sports contracts.
Prediction markets recorded average daily trading volume of $4.13bn in October, up 55% from September, according to figures attributed to Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Open interest rose 45% to $3.27bn, while sports contracts accounted for 78% of total volume. Polymarket's average daily volume reached $655m, up 50% month on month.