CNC data show no faster arrears decline after Brazil betting ban
Regulation2 min read
Brazil’s CNC reported that the share of families with overdue bills fell from 29.6% in September to 29.3% in October. Its October technical report did not mention betting, while the organisation’s chief economist suggested the ban had helped families pay overdue instalments; the report said the monthly falls were both 0.3 percentage points.
Brazil's CNC published its October consumer debt and arrears survey, known as the Peic. The survey found that the share of families with overdue bills fell from 29.6% to 29.3%.
CNC chief economist Fabio Bentes used the result to suggest that the betting ban had left families with more money and helped them pay overdue instalments. The report said that none of the documents it reviewed supports that thesis.
According to the report, the Peic technical report for October does not mention betting at all. The CNC researchers attribute the improvement to a lower share of income being committed to debt and to shorter arrears periods. The betting explanation appears only in the press release and in the chief economist's remarks, the report said. The release itself acknowledges that the effect of the end of betting on the economy cannot yet be fully quantified. It adds that IBGE consumption data for October will only be published in December.
Arrears stood at 29.9% in August. They fell to 29.6% in September. They fell again to 29.3% in October. The two monthly declines are the same size, at 0.3 percentage points each. MP 1.394 was published on 25 September, and the platforms went offline only after 5 October, the deadline for bettors to withdraw their balances. The CNC had itself acknowledged the previous month that the September Peic did not yet reflect the effect of the MP.
From October to December 2025, with the betting platforms fully operating, the CNC series shows arrears falling from 30.5% to 29.4%. For that same period in 2026, without betting sites, the CNC's own projection is a drop of just 0.1 point, to 29.2%. October's 29.3%, billed as the lowest level of the year, matches the January 2026 level, when betting still ran normally. Families who say they cannot pay their overdue debts make up 12.2%, the same share as in June. The Peic interviews about 18 mil consumers in the state capitals and the Federal District.