An industry analysis cited in a Brazilian article put the illegal betting market at 41% to 51% of the sector in June 2025. Yield Sec projections using first- and second-quarter data suggested the share could rise to 74% in Q3 2026; the article also estimated annual tax losses of R$7.2bn to R$10bn.
A projected rise in illegal-market share could weaken licensed operators’ competitive position and reduce tax collection.
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Licensed operators linked to ANJL and IBJR displayed protest messages at Brazilian top-flight football matches after Provisional Measure 1,394 banned online betting. They warned the ban could push bettors towards illegal operators and disrupt sponsorships and investment planning in sport.
Licensed betting companies displayed protest messages on advertising hoardings at Brazilian top-flight football matches, in a joint action against Provisional Measure 1,394, which banned online betting in Brazil. Companies associated with the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) gave up space on the boards around the pitch during matches on Friday and Saturday. The signs read "To prohibit is not to protect" and "The ban doesn't end gambling".
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure 1,394 on 25 September, prohibiting online sports betting in Brazil, according to a media report. The report says the measure reverses the framework introduced in 2023 and leaves licensed operators without a legal basis to operate, with no reimbursement provision for their investments. It cites consultancy LCA figures showing online bets generated up to R$97bn in 2025, of which illegal operators accounted for R$43bn.
Economic consultancy LCA estimates Brazil’s illegal betting market generates R$32.9bn to R$43.3bn in annual gross gaming revenue, according to a report commissioned by the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming. The analysis estimates annual foregone tax revenue of R$9.1bn to R$12bn. It also projects regulated-market revenue of R$54.3bn in 2026 if the reported growth rate continues.
A commentary published on 22 September said Brazil’s presidential palace was preparing a provisional measure to prohibit fixed-odds betting, but the proposal was not confirmed as a decision. It cited LCA estimates that illegal operators account for 38% to 44% of the market, down from 41% to 51% in 2025, and argued that a ban could push consumers towards unlicensed sites.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva renewed his criticism of betting companies and said he would favour ending the activity, while acknowledging opposition in Congress. He cited BRL7.3 billion in gambling revenue for the government in the first half of 2026; research cited in the report estimates unauthorised operators account for 38% to 44% of betting activity.